FIRST THE COUP, THEN THE PURGE

As I feared, the recent 'resignation' of Myanmar's/Burma's prime minister was a power grab by 'hardliners.'

How hardline are they? For some indication here is a brief description of the 'moderate' deposed PM, General Khin Nyunt, from a Bangkok-based opposition newspaper:

Political dissidents accused him of playing a key role the bloody crackdown on the 1988 mass democracy uprising.
He is considered the most educated and adroit of all the ruling generals and has eliminated his rivals by exposing corruption and venality within the ruling circle.
In the early 1990s, the regional press dubbed him the “prince of darkness” due to his position as Burma’s head spook. His men arrest and persecute political dissidents and operate the torture chambers. They also run the public relations and propaganda apparatus.

With that lovely fellow now removed, we get to see what happens when the 'less-moderate' generals take complete control. The new PM, is Lieutenant General Soe Win:

Myanmar Prime Minister Behind Attack on Suu Kyi, U.S. Govt Says
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Myanmar's new prime minister was involved in a decision to attack an opposition rally last May led by Aung San Suu Kyi, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said, citing reports received by the U.S. at the time.
Lieutenant General Soe Win was ``directly involved in the decision to carry out the brutal attack on Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy on May 30, 2003,'' Boucher said yesterday in Washington according to an e-mailed statement. ``We find it to be a report that is worth taking into account.''

Other than the continued, and probably intensified, represion of the opposition – it is hard to tell what else may change. The most pessimistic view is that there could be a return to full-scale guerrilla warefare in many of the border regions. Some reports say the 'new' regime has been busy 'cleaning up' Khin Nyunt's military and businees associates – possibly dealing a fatal blow to the ongoing peace process with several of the country's ethnic groups (registration required):

In the capital city of Yangon representatives of ethnic groups - key players in the democratic process - were gathering after being summoned by the military.
Gen Khin Nyunt had persuaded 20 of these ethnic groups to sign ceasefire agreements and their cooperation will be vital.
An official of the Karen National Union, one of Myanmar's largest rebel groups, told Reuters ongoing peace talks with the regime had come to a halt because 'all of our contact people are Khin Nyunt's men who all now have been arrested'.
Ms Debbie Stothard, coordinator for the pressure group Altasean-Burma told The Straits Times: 'Regime leaders and top level businessmen linked with Khin Nyunt are being removed.
'Usually internal tensions have been dealt with in a quiet manner, this is the most public takeover and exposes divisions within the regime. There could be potentially severe repercussions.'
Analysts said the backgrounds of Lt-Gen Soe Win and SPDC chair Than Shwe indicated there could be a suspension of peace talks initiated by Gen Khin Nyunt.

I somehow doubt that there will be a complete breakdown in the junta's ceasefires with all of the various ethnic groups – if only because the 'peace' has allowed for the blossoming of lucrative drug trafficking, from which the government profits and in which it is likely complicit.

Naturally, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) remains dedicated to demonstrating the wonderful value of regional soft-power diplomacy.

Nice job so far guys.