THE EXPAT VOTE

The Singapore American Association (SAA) has run a poll of its members, finding a higher-than-normal level of interest in this year's election and a lead for Kerry.

The SAA newsletter (another item that has no online link) notes that 70% of the respondents to its survey had already registered to vote, compared with only 37% in the 2000 election.

It also notes that the vote splits 48% to 39% in favor of Kerry.

The top issues for Bush supporters (in order) were: the war on terror, homeland security, taxes, Iraq and social security.

The top issues for Kerry supporters were: the overseas reputation of the U.S., the Iraq war, the environment, the federal deficit and the war on terror.

The article gives no details on the number of people surveyed or the period the poll was conducted (though it was pre-RNC and pre-Bush bounce). As well, Singapore American Association (SAA) members are not representative of the broader US expat community. Most members are professionals or their spouses. Younger and lower-income expats tend to shy away from the SAA due to the roughly $100 membership fee.

Still, the results are generally in line with most of my conversations with Singapore-based Americans. The first element of concern for the Kerry supporters is in a way understandable. Anti-American sentiments are frequently expressed at most social events, more often by Europeans than Asians, so it's easy to see how America's reputation would become a primary issue (despite the fact that there is a war on).

My anecdotal perceptions differ regarding the overseas military (most of whom are not permanent enough to be surveyed by the SAA). They tend to be broadly supportive of Bush. While a U.S. soldier abroad experiences the same anti-Americanism that expats do - and no doubt even worse – the key difference is that they don't have any doubts that there is a war happening.

Mark Steyn recently noted (registration required):

...the real distinction is not between pro- and anti-war, but between September
11 Americans and September 10 Americans. The latter group is a coalition
embracing not just the hardcore Bush haters - for whom, as the opening of
Fahrenheit 9/11 makes plain, it all goes back to chads in Florida - but the
larger group of voters who've been a little stressed out by the epic nature of
politics these last three years and would like a quieter life.

As a expat Canadian I don't have to put up with the same level of verbal slings and arrows as Americans do ... at least not until after I start expressing my opinions. Still, supporting Kerry because "you want a quiter life" seems both selfish and misguided.