FAILED OLYMPIC ANALYSIS

Economists often get things wrong. Right now, that's something that Americans, Australians, the Japanese and Chinese can be very pleased about. All of those nations, as well as most of the top medal winners from the 2004 Olympics, bettered an expected outcome from PricewaterhouseCoopers.

PwC based its expectations on the following factors: population; average income levels (measured by GDP per capita at PPP exchange rates); whether the country was previously part of the former Soviet bloc (including Cuba); whether the country was the host nation and medal shares in the previous Olympic Games.

PwC forecast that the US would receive 70 medals and it won 103. PwC pegged Oz at 41 and it claimed 49. China was expected to collect 50 and it scored 63. PwC estimated that Japan would collect 20 and it received 37. They suggested their analysis should be used as a benchmark rather than a predictive tool.

The benchmark shows model estimates of the top 30 medal winners at the Athens Olympics in comparison with actual performance in Sydney 2000. These results are not necessarily the best predictions of performance in Athens, but they do represent one possible benchmark against which actual performance can be judged. The U.S., Russia, China and Germany are expected to continue to lead the medal table in Athens, although the model suggests that they will do well to match their performance at the Sydney Olympics. For Greece as host nation, the medal outlook according to the model is much brighter than in Sydney, while Australia is expected to rank lower on the medal table somewhat without its home country advantage.

Greece's home advantage was nowhere near as strong as PwC expected (they collected 16 medals and not the expected 29). Canada, as well, failed to live up to expectations (winning 12 medals compared to the predicted 15). While that's disappointing, I'm pleased to know that the Great White North kicks ass at trampoline.

The final medal tally is here.

Slate has an article on the study here.