WORSE THAN VIETNAM

In a commentary today, Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kwan Yew expresses tempered optimism about the democratic prospects of Malaysia and Indonesia - and even more reserved optimism about Iraq's prospects.

He also notes that Iraq is not the same as Vietnam. He says it could be something worse - but only if we lose. Lee cautions against an early exit from that country:

On June 28, American authorities restored Iraq's sovereignty under a United Nations Security Council resolution, handing authority to a caretaker government led by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. Elections for a representative government are to be held no later than Jan 31 next year. The result should be a better Iraq.

But if US forces leave precipitately because of terrorist attacks, Muslim terrorists throughout the world will be triumphant. Where the Vietnamese were content to see Americans leave and to concentrate on building socialism in Vietnam, Islamic militants will pursue departing Americans to all corners of the globe. If the militants succeed in thwarting the US in Iraq, their zealousness to die in pursuit of an Islamic caliphate spanning the globe will reach new heights.

Although I had not been a big Lee Kwan Yew fan in the 80s and 90s - back when he was promoting Asia's 'superior values' - I had always thought of him as the smartest leader in Asia. Right now, he says very little that I disagree with.

And he clearly has a far better idea about the stakes involved in Iraq than most European or Western leaders.