NEIGHBORS III

Indonesia held its first direct presidential elections on Sunday. They're still counting the votes but the initial result gives retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono about 34% of the vote. That means a second-round runoff in September - likely against oil-for-food plan beneficiary incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who has received about 27% of votes counted.

If it comes down to Susilo and Mega in September, most analysts expect the former general to win.

Susilo has so far been the candidate most willing to discuss the threat of Islamic terrorism. He is perceived as being relatively clean, so he would probably be the best of the candidates on law and order and anti-corruption issues. His win would be welcomed by financial markets and would be beneficial for Indonesia.

Mega, as I have said before, dithers on terror issues and her government leaves a lot to be desired in the economic sphere (though, for stability, her administration was a slight improvement over her predecessor).

Third place with about 20% of the vote went to ex-general Wiranto of the secular Golkar party, ex-dictator Suharto's former vehicle. Wiranto has been accused of either allowing or ordering human-rights abuses in East Timor. While his platform is generally acceptable to the mainstream - a Wiranto presidency would be awkward for Western powers that have to deal with the country.

The best thing is that the Islamists have been the biggest losers.

Amien Rais is a former Islamic leader, who acted as the head of a Suharto-linked Islamic organization. He's more of an opportunist than an Islamist, but he has played to the anti-American masses whenever it was called for. He has received about 14% of the vote so far.

The only hard-core Islamist who was running – the despicable current vice president Hamzah Haz – has received about 3% of the vote. Haz is probably best known outside of Indonesia for his defense of the alleged Jemmah Islamiah leader Abu Bakar Bashir and he has always tried to cultivate the radical Islamist vote.

I hope that Haz did cultivate it. I hope that he got all of it . That would mean the Indonesian Islamist vote was only 3%.

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.