VOTED

I just sealed my overseas ballot envelope, so the election is essentially over for me. Or at least it will be when I get around to buying a stamp. Now, this is all just entertainment. Fortunately things are shaping up to be very entertaining.

The newest Ipos-Reid poll puts the Conservatives within striking distance of a minority government - with the vote split 34% Liberal, 30% Conservative nationally and with the two parties tied at 36% support in Ontario. For Quebec the Bloq is well ahead of the Liberals at 44% to 29%.

As well, it terms of voter perceptions, Harper is gaining strength while Martin is losing it. Harper has a positive 'momentum score' of +18 while Martin's momentum is -36.

It's still early days yet, but Ipos-Reid notes:

... the Ipsos-Reid seat model indicates that if the Conservative Party can wrest only 20 more seats from the Liberals they will be in a position to potentially form a minority government.

So, it looks right now that we'll likely get a loose Conservative-Bloq coalition or some sort of more formal Liberal-NDP alliance. While I look forward to seeing the federal Liberals humbled, neither of those prospects are really that appealing.

I'm somewhat ambivalent toward a Conservative-Bloq coalition. A Sovereign Quebec doesn't really disturb me that much, so long as I can visit Montreal whenever I want (the coolest Canadian city outside of St. John's IMHO). With an independent Quebec, there could even be some net benefits for the rest of Canada on the fiscal side of things. As well, the nation would likely move closer ideologically to the rest of the Anglosphere. However I don't see any prospect of Quebec attaining sovereignty in the near future - so talk of a Con-Bloq coalition, right now, would likely only turn off potential Conservative voters in the staunchly federalist Ontario. Also, the Bloq is left-leaning and would weaken a Harper government's ability to push a reformist agenda.

A Liberal-NDP alliance does bother me greatly. Beyond having to adopt some of the NDP's more loopy policies - I fear the thing would push the Liberal party far to the left. I'm not a big fan of Martin, but I was relieved to see Chretien go and at the time was looking forward to a more fiscally conservative government and possibly better Canada-US relations. If the nation rebuffs Martin, he will have to step down and the Liberals will probably be headed by someone much worse. Given the purge of the Chretienites that followed Martin's coronation, no doubt there are some Liberals who wouldn't mind seeing that happen.

Anyway, there's a little over three weeks left. So I'll just sit back in the sun and hope for a Conservative majority.