PREDICTIONS
The big three papers have all chimed in with their seat predictions giving us a splendid mess. The Star is seeing a Liberal minority, the Globe a Conservative minority and the National Post comes close to forecasting a tie:
The Star/La Press EKOS poll puts the Liberals up by eight seats:
The poll shows that the Liberals and Conservatives are less than one percentage point apart in support among decided voters, but the extraordinary size of the sample — 5,254 interviews — allowed pollster EKOS Research Ltd. to project that the Liberals would win eight seats more than the Conservatives.
The poll, conducted for the Star and La Presse, gives the Liberals 32.6 per cent of the decided vote, the Conservatives 31.8 per cent, the NDP 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois 11.2 per cent and the Green party 4.9 per cent.
The Globe Ipos-Reid poll on Friday put the Conservatives up by 16 seats:
A seat-projection model produced by Ipsos-Reid nationwide suggests that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper could end up with a wider edge in the next Parliament than the polling data might suggest.
The model -- based on the results of this latest poll and, to a lesser extent, three previous ones by Ipsos-Reid -- finds that the Conservatives have a potential 115 to 119 seats, compared with 99 to 103 for the Liberals. The NDP has the potential for about 25, while the Bloc may be destined for its best showing ever, dominating Quebec's 75 seats.
The National Post COMPAS Inc poll is basically calling it a draw, giving the Liberals a mere one seat advantage:
Barry Kay, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, projects 112 seats for the Liberals, 111 for the Tories, 60 for the Bloc Quebecois and 25 for the NDP, based on three national polls released this week.
The election prediction site - which is based on pundits and not polling, hasn't changed since Wednesday: Liberals 93 seats, Conservatives 74, NDP 17, BQ 37 and 87 seats too close to call. This seems to be greatly underestimating Conservative and Bloc strength.
Andrew Coyne is running a fascinating prediction thread at his comment section, with over 300 predictions and other comments.
I'll take a stab at it:
CON 120
LIB 109
BQ 60
NDP 19
As for my riding prediction, St John's North will go to Conservative incumbent Norm Doyle.
Keep in mind that I don't live in the country.


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