PREDICTIONS II

Political scientist Barry Kay has crunched the numbers from six different polls and has this estimate:

According to an analysis by Wilfrid Laurier University professor Barry Kay, the Tories are set to win 115 seats to the Liberals' 106.

The Bloc Quebecois is projected to take 61 seats, and the NDP, 26. Mr. Kay's analysis is based on a sample size of 12,150 from six different polls conducted June 17 to 24.

Andrew Coyne's Collective Wisdom thread has yielded this result:

COLLECTIVE WISDOM UPDATE: The results so far, based on the roughly 240 entries I could make sense of, put the standings as Liberals 106, Conservatives 122, NDP 22, Bloc 57, Independents 1 (Chuck Cadman in Surrey North is the most-cited prospect).
This eminently reasonable-sounding prediction is backed up by the reports from our correspondents in the ridings. We've heard from (or at least about) 168 of 308 so far, and they would seem to project the Tories coming out of BC with 28 to 30 ridings, taking all but 1 or 2 seats in Alberta, and 40-plus in Ontario. In addition, they're probably good for 10 or 12 in Atlantic Canada and maybe the same number in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (though reports from these areas are sketchy). So I think 120 seats is a safe number -- certainly no fewer than 110.

He's calling for correspondents from ridings not yet accounted for. If you haven't yet, please go and make a forecast.

Also, the Election Prediction site has updated its seat forecast:
Liberals 107, Conservatives 97, NDP 25, Bloc Québécois 52 and it also sees one independent (Chuck Cadman in BC, Surrey North). The number of too-close-to-call ridings is at 24.

I noted that all of the predictions give the NDP a much better showing than my own estimate. Personally I think the NDP will act as a spoiler against the Liberals in a lot of districts, thus helping the Conservatives. I think the Liberal's have some internal polling that is showing that as well. Why else would Martin do this?:

Prime Minister Paul Martin lay the foundation for an alliance with the NDP yesterday and launched an eleventh hour effort to scare Canadians off the Conservative party. Martin appealed directly to NDP supporters during an upbeat swing through Ontario, insisting that they "spring from the same well" and should unite to keep Stephen Harper's Conservatives on the opposition benches.

'Let us come together'

"We share the same values. For the good of the country, let us come together," Martin said during a press conference in Toronto.

Also, I think the Greens will hurt the NDP in BC and a few other races in Ontario. Why else would the NDP do this?:

VICTORIA (CP) - Green supporters in Victoria and Ottawa have been hit with a leaflet attack by the NDP calling on them to come home.

Green party Leader Jim Harris, whose response to just about everything comes with an optimistic laugh, only wishes the NDP well because apparently they think they need it.

"I think it's sad, it really shows their desperation," he said.

Green supporters displaying lawn signs in ridings in Ottawa and Victoria have found pamphlets in their mailboxes from NDP organizers.

One is a letter from former Green party leader Joan Russow urging voters to jump to the New Democrats, calling it the only real environmental party.

It won't happen on Tuesday, but with all of this vote-splitting perhaps in the aftermath of the next election we'll see a 'unite the left campaign.'