LKY

Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kwan Yew, speaking in Tokyo, reiterated his backing for the US-led coalition in Iraq and warned against failure:

'I think if we all start withdrawing our troops and the Americans are left alone, that's going to be very big trouble for them. And if they fail, it's big trouble for all of us,' Mr Lee told an annual symposium here whose theme this year was on laying the groundwork for Asia's regional integration.

He made the remark in the context of Spain's decision to recall its troops from Iraq after terrorists killed nearly 200 train commuters in Madrid earlier this year.

He also noted the US was a positive stabilizing force within Asia:

He pointed out that despite the Korean and Vietnam wars and another war between Vietnam and Cambodia, East Asia had known peace and stability since 1945, thanks to the US security umbrella.

He therefore urged East Asian nations to support US efforts to bring stability back to Iraq. 'Let's try and help the Americans in whatever way we can to solve this problem, because if they get into serious trouble and cannot maintain the framework of security and stability in East Asia, we are in trouble,' said Mr Lee.

'They have brought us, since 1945, through 60 years of peace and stability. Let's keep it,' he emphasised.

Lee warned that failure in Iraq would for Asia likely cause the disruption of oil supplies and embolden Muslim terrorists operating in this region.

He also noted that the chances of bringing democracy to Iraq were slim given the self-imposed deadlines the US has set for the transition process:

'I do not believe, with the time that the Americans have at their disposal to stay in Iraq, that they can bring about democracy in Iraq. I think that will be very difficult,' he said.

He noted that it took the US more than 10 years to bring democracy to Japan after World War II, and similarly in the case of post-war Germany.

He's probably right, and I do worry that people think restructuring Iraq is a short-term project rather than a long-term investment. A functioning liberal democracy in Iraq could help bring about similar changes throughout the rest of the Arab world (democratization does come in waves). A withdrawal in two years – or less - would likely prevent that from happening.