EAST OF ONTARIO

There's not much to this yet except some anecdotal references by reporters and analysts seem to indicate that the Conservatives may be breaking through in Atlantic Canada and possibly even Quebec.

From Atlantic Canada, the Canadian Press reports:

Analysts say that seats once counted as secure for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada could be lost in the shifting political winds of the federal election campaign.
Don Mills, president of Corporate Research Associates Inc., says that despite the polling firm's recent survey suggesting a sizeable lead for Paul Martin and the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, the situation is changing rapidly.
He says a poll of 3,403 Atlantic Canadians conducted during the last two weeks of May suggested the Liberals had the support of 45 per cent of people surveyed while the Conservative Party had 27 per cent and the NDP 19 per cent.
However, Mills says the poll found a significant increase in voter dissatisfaction with the Liberal government and that, he says, is fueling a shift in voter preferences

More anecdotal is Kevin Newman's blog for Canwest/Global from Quebec:

Stephen Harper appeared on the influential Radio Canada broadcast Le Point tonight. He's been doing a number of french-language interviews lately, and surprising a lot of Quebeckers are giving him a hearing. They had no real relationship with Preston Manning, ignored Stockwell Day, but have been a little more respectful of Harper. His capacity in French is part of it -- he's comfortable -- but Quebecers also know he is the real author of the Clarity Act, which the Liberals pretty much co-opted. It sets the conditions for the separation of Quebec, and even separatists respect it because if they win a referendum based on its restrictions, an independent Quebec would have a lot more legitimacy. Harper has been getting a hearing, but so far he's not getting votes...
Still, Quebec voters have a strategic habit of swinging to winners at the last minute so as not to be left out of the action in Ottawa. If Harper can build up a comfortable lead in the final weeks of the campaign, don't be surprised to start reading about a sudden surge in Tory fortunes in Quebec. A lot of angry voters are simply parked with the Bloc right now.

Given my experience with Newfoundland, Atlantic Canada does prefer to back winners - it's hard to get benefits as a dependent province if you back the opposition. So, while a shift to the Conservatives there is a real probability, I still think it would take a miracle for Quebec federalists to start abandoning the Liberals. Stranger things have happened, but I can't yet see it.

Colin May of Innocents Abroad, who has in light of recent events raised his estimate of the Conservatives chances, suggests that the debate could be a tipping point for many undecided voters:

The latest polls show that around a quarter of those currently saying they'll vote Liberal will switch to the Conservatives if Harper puts in a good performance. This could mean some extra Conservative seats in suburban Ontario and the Fraser Valley in BC, enough to give the Conservatives a substantial lead, even without a majority. In any case, the man on the spot is Stephen Harper, and all the Liberals can do is throw insults from the sidelines.