DON'T GO WOBBLY

From the CBC, 1:08 EDT, leading or elected: Lib 136, Con 96 (plus Cadman = 97), BQ 54 and NDP 21.

I'm disappointed, the victim of raised expectations. Still, that wasn't so bad for a new party - for some perspective, this is where we were six weeks ago:

The Ipsos-Reid seat projection model predicts that if an election were held Friday, the Liberals would capture between 171 and 175 seats, up from 160 to 164 last week.

(h/t Colby via Inkless)

Yes, Martin can hang on to power - but linking up with the NDP will weaken any sort of personal agenda he may have had. He is now just an empty suit who will now have to pander to the NDP and his party's own 'progressive' wing. That's not good for Canada, but I doubt it will be a long-term situation. He will not be remembered as Prime Minister but as Chretien's finance minister. This is a grave personal loss for him, and only a pyrrhic victory for Sheila Copps.

For the major parties, this is a loss all around: the Liberals lost their majority; the Conservatives lost their best chance at forming a government; the Bloc lost their chance to play kingmaker and the NDP - who come out better than the rest - still failed to live up to expectations. Paul Wells notes that the late swing of NDP voters to the Liberals has cost the party a chance to play a truly effective role in government.

But things aren't that bad. The Conservatives have been given an opening for a better showing next time - so long as they don't start to wallow in assumed defeat or assume the united conservative project is a failure.

More on this after six.